Let's compare...

First of all I want to mention about another code...Soccer. I call it that, others call it football, but not me. One thing I noticed about the beautiful game is that it's that. There is a lot of skill involved and that bit I enjoy. But one gripe I do have is that it's not a tough game, not unlike AFL or Thugby. I noticed with the game last night between Australia and Bahrain one player for Bahrain practically dived and rolled around on the ground, not once but twice and went off then back on both times. That's the thing that shits me about that game. Those soccer players would not survive one game of AFL footy. If a player dives in AFL we practically ignore it and tell them to get up! It's not on in my book!

Ok the purpose of this post is to compare my ladder before the start of the AFL season and one I have just compiled with the current wins and probability of wins for the rest of the year. This is what I had:

1. Geelong. 18 Wins, 4 losses. Finished first based upon percentage.
2. Hawthorn. 18 wins, 4 losses.
3. Collingwood. 16 wins, 6 losses.
4. Western Bulldogs. 14 wins, 8 losses.
5. Port Adelaide. 12 wins, 10 losses.
6. North Melbourne. 11 wins, 11 losses. Finished 6th based upon percentage.
7. Fremantle. 11 wins, 11 losses.
8. St Kilda. 10 wins, 12 losses. Finished 8th based upon percentage.
9. Carlton. 10 wins, 12 losses.
10. Sydney. 10 wins, 12 losses.
11. Adelaide. 9 wins, 13 losses.
12. Brisbane. 8 wins, 14 losses.
13. Richmond. 7 wins, 15 losses. Finished 13th based upon percentage.
14. Essendon. 7 wins, 15 losses.
15. West Coast. 5 wins, 17 losses.
16. Melbourne. 3 wins, 18 losses.

Man how things have changed, a couple of surprise packets from the start of the year. Based upon the ladder now after round 11, I have predicted the rest of the year and made my mid season prediction for the rest of the year, here it is:

1. St Kilda. 20 wins, 2 losses. Finish first based upon percentage.
2. Geelong. 20 wins, 2 losses.
3. Hawthorn. 15 wins, 7 losses.
4. Western Bulldogs. 14 wins, 8 losses. Finished 4th based upon percentage.
5. Collingwood. 14 wins, 8 losses.
6. Carlton. 13 wins, 9 losses. Finished 6th based upon percentage.
7. Adelaide. 13 wins, 9 losses.
8. Port Adelaide. 13 wins, 9 losses.
9. Brisbane. 12 wins, 10 losses.
10. Sydney. 11 wins, 11 losses.
11. Essendon. 8 wins, 14 losses. Finished 11th based upon percentage.
12. West Coast. 8 wins, 14 losses.
13. North Melbourne. 7 wins, 15 wins.
14. Fremantle. 6 wins, 16 losses.
15. Richmond. 4 wins, 18 losses.
16. Melbourne. 2 wins, 20 losses.

Have a look and compare. There are some major differences. It proves in this game that there are no certainties, so I maybe wrong come the end of the year. These are only probabilities. I would love to hear from you about what you think about my "Probability ladders" for 2009. Drop me an email carefactor0@live.com.au or just add a post.

Catch ya!